Lottery Ticket Chances

I see newly successful writers with book deals talk about their careers, & it feels like watching a lottery winner describe their windfall as a career.

I see newly agented writers give advice, & it feels like watching a lottery ticket-holder explain how they bought the ticket.

When I was a kid, saying I wanted to be a writer, all the adults around me made sure I knew I should have a backup plan for getting by.

And that was back in the 90s. When it was -way- more possible to get a book deal and have that turn into a lifelong career.

See, I grew up with the story of my uncle. He supports himself writing and self-publishing hiking books, something he’s done since I was a kid and self-publishing was hard and exceedingly rare.

But once, he sold a book to a big publisher, and it had great reviews…

Because of how the publishing industry works, the timing of the great reviews came too late, & the book was no longer on shelves. My uncle ended up with a basement full of books & no royalties beyond the advance.

So, I grew up knowing how hard & iffy writing is as a career.

But I watch the “discourse” on “writer twitter,” and I see so many starry-eyed writers, a decade or two younger than me, talking about writing like it’s a viable career option… instead of a total gamble that absolutely isn’t worth it from a purely financial angle.

And yeah, sure, writing should be valued more. And okay, self-publishing has changed the game… but as far as I can tell, realistically, writing only pays enough to live on if you’re

—wildly lucky
—able to consistently put out multiple books per year

Pick two of the above.

And I just don’t get it. What’s gonna happen to all these optimistic 20-year-olds in a few years? Because it seems to me like most of them will give up or continue to toil in obscurity, chasing after lottery-ticket chances. And even the successful few will find it doesn’t last.

But here’s the kick: the writers we hear from, consistently, will be the writers who encountered luck upon luck, while also working hard.

And they say that hard work pays off. Because it did for them.

But that’s just survivorship bias.

I just get really tired of hearing the few-and-far-between writers who are successful enough that a lot of people listen to them talk about writing like a viable career that should be treated socially like a viable career, just because they’ve won the lottery.

Writing fiction never has been & never will be something that’s paid based on the work put into it. You just simply can’t measure it the same way as physical labor.

This, of course, is where I sing the same old song about Universal Basic Income.

But I’ve sung that song before.

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